What the work can cover
Make exposure visible
Identify the events, assumptions and dependencies that could affect the objective. Describe each risk in terms of its cause and its possible effect.
Test the direction
Use a small number of coherent scenarios to examine where the proposed direction holds up and where it becomes fragile. Scenarios are possibilities, not predictions.
Assign the response
Give important risks an owner, a response, a trigger and a review point. Make clear what can be controlled and what should be monitored.
A clear working process
- Define the objective and the decisions at risk.
- Identify exposures and uncertain assumptions.
- Compare scenarios and response options.
- Assign owners, triggers and review dates.
Bring the context you already have
- The objective and the proposed course of action.
- Your main assumptions and external dependencies.
- Known incidents, constraints and contingency arrangements.
- Who can act when an agreed trigger is reached.
Common questions
Does a risk score predict what will happen?
No. A score is a way to organise a discussion using chosen likelihood and impact scales. It should be read alongside the description, evidence and uncertainty.
How often should risks be reviewed?
Set a review rhythm that fits the decision and its pace of change. Also identify events or evidence that should trigger an earlier review.